Glenrothes PR disaster

I feel sorry for Sarah Brown.

Ushered into the Glenrothes constituency to try and boost her husband’s flagging party, the Labour campaigners turned what should have been a well-orchestrated media campaign into an absolute shambles.

The Prime Minister’s wife was ushered round 9 pre-selected homes in Cardenden.

Unfortunately it seems that the Labour ushers were a bit too much for the journalists.

From The Scotsman:

‘Journalists who then found themselves walking beside Mrs Brown struggled to avoid being tripped up as party members muscled in, trying to form a protective phalanx.

Then came the most extraordinary piece of control freakery of the day. “I want you guys on the green,” said the man from the Labour Party. “There will be six or seven guys with guns who will keep you away from her. You may be shot and then it won’t be my problem.” ‘

Threatening to kill the assembled journalists can’t have gone down well with the press.

This only days after the Commonwealth Journalists Association issued a declaration against the abuse of journalists at their conference in Malaysia:

“We will expose and embarrass. We will lobby our own governments to pressure these despots into treating journalists with basic human respect.”

Various papers just went and interviewed those on the street not fortunate enough for a visit instead:

The Herald:

‘Darren Brovan, 23, a joiner who said he was not given the option of a visit from the PM’s wife, watched the tightly managed procession from an upstairs window.

‘He said: “It doesn’t seem very fair that she’s not going round everyone’s house, though I suppose I wouldn’t have answered the door to her anyway. I lost my job last month, because of the credit crunch, and I think that’s the government’s fault. But what would be the point in me bringing that up with the Prime Minister’s wife? What difference would it make? She’d have forgotten my name in two minutes anyway.” ‘

The Scottish Daily Express:

‘Anne Murray, 45, who did not have a Labour banner in her window, was apparently unworthy of a visit.

‘She said: “I would have asked her, ‘Where’s your husband?’

“She should have been here last night when there were three police cars and an ambulance in the street. I can’t tell you why because I would have my windows put in.” ‘

And the people she did visit?

The Scottish Daily Express:

‘One of the doors she happened to stop at was that of Joni Doig, 37, the daughter of Labour councillor Margo Doig. Joni said: “She was lovely and said she thought Labour might win. We know them quite well. My dad did a bit of painting and decorating for her and Gordon in their house in Inverkeithing last year.”

‘Kathleen McNulty, Councillor Doig’s next-door neighbour, also received a visit.’

The Scotsman:

‘Natasha Burns, 18, held her 18-month-old son, McKenzie, who was agog at the goings-on. She said: “He couldn’t believe the commotion. She was just talking away to him and he said: ‘hi’ when she said: ‘Goodbye’.” ‘

A typical street in Cardenden then, merely coincidentally where a Labour councillor lives.

What gets me is Sarah Brown was a founding partner of Hobsbawm Macaulay Communications, a public relations company. I bet she is livid over Labour’s handling of her photo-opportunity!

I’d guess if she visits the Glenrothes constituency again she’ll want a lot more say in how things are run.

Its hardly the start to the campaign that Labour could have wanted.

Sarah Brown was supposed to be Labour’s spearhead in the Glenrothes campaign, according to the Daily Record.

They have a quote from Labour’s Scottish Secretary, Jim Murphy:

“Sarah will shine on the doorstep. Her decision is a real boost for our campaign and it’s a signal Labour is fighting for every single vote.”

When he meant Labour was fighting for every vote, it meant using guns then?

Oops!

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Gordon Brown and the internet

So it seems that Gordon Brown will unveil an internet connection programme that will apply in England but not in the rest of the UK?

Is this part of the plan to get the UK higher up the world broadband league table where the UK sits 13th?

But its strange that this programme will take place only in England. Not Northern Ireland, Wales or Scotland.

Because England leads the UK in broadband takeup!

So because the UK Government is refusing to give Barnett consequentials to Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, the rest of the UK misses out.

Don’t get me wrong. I’d much rather Barnett was scrapped and Scotland had full fiscal responsibility instead (I’m sure the Northern Irish and Welsh have their own ideas) – but while we’ve got the system, it should be seen to be operating.

Otherwise it can only fuel Plaid Cymru and the SNP in their bid for independent nations.

So the nation with the highest broadband takeup in the UK gets all the money, and the rest of us gets nothing! Wasn’t Barnett supposedly based on need?

Wales broadband takeup is only 45%. Northern Ireland is 52%. Scotland is 53 %.

Broadband takeup in Glasgow is 32%. I have already posted a blog comparing Glasgow’s internet reach with the Glasgow circulation of the Daily Record and found the newspaper is marginally ahead of those that read news on the internet.

What that means of course is that more people get exposed to the Daily Record’s Labour propaganda than get their news from the internet.

Indeed the whole Internet Connection Programme can be seen as politically motivated in Labour’s interest. It keeps Labour strongholds like Wales and Scotland’s public free of any dissenting Labour voice and also in England promotes freedom of expression where Labour is weak and also tries to quell any demand for an English Parliament at the same time.

Of course, some Labour bloggers may find this a good idea, given they say a leaning on the internet of nationalist blogs in Scotland.

They fail to realise that its precisely because the public have little newspaper or media support backing their aspirations of independence, that they have had to take to the internet to try and get their views heard! Again, that’s something I have blogged about before.

Incidentally, this blog has just had over 25 000 page views since I started at the end of May. (Thanks to everyone that reads!)

I think that’s not bad, since I still don’t know what I’m doing!

Thanks to Gordon Brown’s ‘not Scotland’ policy, I guess all the Scottish bloggers will be disappointed that the Scottish internet take-up will remain stagnant. (The same goes for Wales and Northern Ireland.)

Another Union dividend.

England v Australia Olympic battle

While politicans try to make political capital of the Olympics it seems that a spat has developed between England and Australia over the medal tally.

It started when The Sun drove mobile billboards around London and Sydney saying ‘Where the bloody hell were you?’ and pointing out Team GB’s superior gold medal tally to Australia.

Now the Australians have hit back saying that Australia have 14 gold medals compared England’s 13.

The Australian Daily Telegraph have now performed a similar stunt.

‘Above you in the medal table’ the Aussies claim.

I’m just waiting for the Australian Government to publicly endorse the SNP and Plaid Cymru and demand Scottish and Welsh independence!

Olympic successes and Google Earth

It seems that Chris Hoy was upset by The Scotsman’s reports that he said a Scottish Olympic team would be ridiculous.

He is quoted in the Daily Record (Its something when even the Daily Record shows up how anti-SNP The Scotsman has become!):

“I feel a bit upset that I have been quoted as saying the idea of a Scottish Olympic team is ridiculous.

“If and when a Scottish team was put together, I would be delighted to represent Scotland in the Olympic Games.

“But before that happens, so much needs to be done for the athletes to be able to compete at the highest level.

“As a cyclist, there isn’t a facility in Scotland where I can train throughout the year and that’s why I have to base myself outside Scotland.

“I am proud to be Scottish, but at the same time it’s not feasible to think we can compete as a nation without the right facilities.”

So he’s just calling for an improvement in facilities, and seems to have clarified his past comments.

I’m sure he would much rather train in Scotland if the facilities matched those of Manchester.

And that’s the rub. Athletes can train anywhere that have the right facilities. Many of the successful Jamaican Olympic team trained in the United States, for instance.

The 2014 Commonwealth Games should provide a legacy of facilities for our athletes for years to come.

Some athletes don’t need much in the way of facilities:

Kristin Armstrong, an American Olympic cyclist in Beijing, won the Gold in the Women’s Individual Time Trial in Road Cycling.

It seems all she needed was her bike, her husband’s GPS and a PC running Google Earth.

She took the GPS when she trialled the Olympic route in 2007. She then went home, imported the data into Google Earth, and then matched the elevations of the Chinese Olympic route to a similar route at her home in Boise, Idaho for her training.

Now that is smart thinking.

And in Beijing she cruised to a Gold Medal.

You can just bet Google Earth will be playing this up for years!

Incidentally, Emma Pooley from England won the Silver, one of the medallists in Team GB. She is based and trains in Zurich, Switzerland. I’ll bet she wishes she thought of that idea! Or indeed, Nicole Cooke from Wales – based in Lugano, Switzerland, who finished fifteenth. But she did win the Gold in the Road Race.

Finally a hat-tip to Daibhi Anseo who pointed out in the comments to my post on Home Nations Olympic teams in history that a cycling team represented Scotland in the 1912 Olympics in Sweden.

I’ve not found a picture yet but I have found the names of the Scotland cycling squad:

John Wilson
Robert Thompson
John Miller
David Stevenson
Charles Hill
James Stevenson
George Corsar
Arthur Griffiths

They finished fourth and just missed out on a medal. The hosts Sweden came first and took the gold, obviously having the advantage of regularly training on the Olympic route.

If only Google Earth was around in 1912!

Blogging – a minority sport?

On a recent BBC television programme Holyrood Live, the chair of the Scottish Broadcasting Commission Blair Jenkins quoted figures they researched indicating the source of people’s news.

TV approx. 80 %
Newspapers approx 55 %
Radio approx 25 %
Internet approx 20 %

I would imagine these figures would be similar across the UK, with these provisios garned from Ofcom:-

Scotland has a 53 % takeup of broadband.
England has a 58 % takeup
Northern Ireland has a 52 % takeup
Wales has a 45 % takeup

The UK on average has a 57% takeup of broadband.

(Ofcom also breaks Scotland’s takeup down by region:-

Aberdeen 64%
Edinburgh, Highlands and Islands, Dundee 62%
Glasgow 32 % )

Glasgow’s figure is low because there is less takeup of PCs.

It is also clear that the figures in Glasgow, its largest city, are slowing down Scotland’s takeup figures as a whole! If Glasgow had a figure close to that of Edinburgh, Dundee or Aberdeen then Scotland would be higher than the UK average with a figure higher than 60 %.

Ofcom’s figures for the UK show are a slight improvement than the standard

http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cmrnr08/scotland/

So it would be fair to say that the figures for the internet news mentioned in the Scottish Broadcasting Commission would probably be slightly higher in England, probably around 22 % closing in on radio. If reflected on Northern Ireland and Wales the internet news figure would be slighly lower.

What does all this mean for Scottish bloggers?

Well it really means that percentage-wise our Scottish audience figures will be low. How many internet users could be swayed by news or political blogs online in Glasgow East, say?

Glasgow has a 32% take up of broadband. Its probably less in Glasgow East, but Ofcom’s figures don’t break down by constituency.

So if we take the Glasgow East constituency of say 60000 (compensating for the lower broadband take-up and making the arithmetic slightly easier); only 1/3 of people there will have broadband.

That’s 20 000.

Now only a fifth of those use the internet for news.

That’s 4 000.

That’s a maximum amount of Glasgow East people that political bloggers and online newspapers etc can reach.

But compare that figure to the Daily Record.

Average daily circulation figure in Scotland around 360 000.
Population of Scotland about 5 million people.

Thats 7.2% of the population.

7.2% of 60 000 (roughly the Glasgow East electorate) is 4320.

A remarkably close figure to the internet figure.

The difference is that the news hungry internet people have a world of choice to get their news, and those reading the Daily Record are stuck with the Record’s view on everything from politics to big brother and the Old Firm.

What better reason could there be for extending the broadband take-up in Scotland?

Scotland has 53% broadband take-up. South Korea has 93 % broadband take-up.

South Korea has legislation making new house-builders put broadband in place as standard. What’s more its usually better and faster (mainly fibre-optic technology) and cheaper than the standard in Scotland.

Something to think about for Scotland.

Sunday Telegraph poll doctored SNP vote down and Labour vote up in Glasgow East

As polling details from the Sunday Telegraph poll are placed online by ICM, it shows that the filter mechanism that they use actually lowered the real SNP vote, and increased the Labour vote.

Of the 516 constituents they asked only 303 were willing to say who they would vote for.

Of the 303 who indicated their voting intentions:-

131 would vote Labour.
124 would vote SNP.
28 would vote Conservative.
10 would vote Liberal Democrat
10 would vote for Others

In percentage terms that breaks down as:-

Labour 43.2 %
SNP 40.9 %
Conservative 9.2%
Liberal Democrats 3.3%
Others 3.3%

In other words there is a 2.3 % difference between Labour and the SNP.

So the SNP now just require a swing of over 1.15% to take the seat!

The reason why ICM released the doctored figures to the Sunday Telegraph is to do with the filtering mathematics they use on the poll.

For instance, as it has been a very safe seat in the past ICM have gave Labour the majority of the don’t know vote.

This implies that the don’t know vote will come out again in favour of Labour.

But as I quoted the Labour Campaigner yesterday, the Labour vote is very soft and reluctant. There is no justification for assuming that they will turnout and vote Labour.

The ICM’s adjustments may well be valid for General elections but I think these type of adjustments are misplaced for by-elections.

This doctoring of figures is ICM’s usual technique so we can assume there has been no political bias in their adjustments.

However it does serve as a cautionary tale for those willing to place great store in opinion polls.

Nonetheless the true figures provide a great lift to the SNP campaign and are a warning shot to Labour.

I expect this by election to be very close indeed!

Labour’s own polling shows SNP vote soaring in Glasgow East

Just one day after the Sunday Telegraph released their poll showing that the SNP vote has gained 16% and that the Labour vote is down by 14%, the Times reports that Labour’s own internal polling for the seat shows that there is now only 2500 votes between Labour and the SNP!

The Sunday Telegraph poll suggested that the SNP were fast closing the gap on Labour, then only needing a swing of 7% to win the seat.

Labour’s own polling now suggest that the SNP are breathing down their necks in Glasgow East, much closer than the Sunday Telegraph predicted.

If Labour’s polling is accurate then it means that there is now only 8.08% of vote between the Labour Party and the SNP – if the turnout figure matches that of the 2005 election.

That means that the SNP now require only a 4.04 % swing from Labour to the SNP to win the seat.

It shows that the SNP have grabbed all the momentum in the by-election, starting as they did needing a massive 22% swing a week ago when the campaign started.

Every day closer to polling day the swing from Labour to SNP grows larger, and the SNP draw nearer to a historic victory.

Will Gordon Brown’s tactic of having such a short by-election campaign save Labour?

Labour’s own campaign team want the by-election today before their vote haemorrhages away to the SNP completely. As each day passes more votes are lost.

The Times article quotes a Labour Campaigner speaking a few days ago:

“A significant amount of our vote is soft — it’s either reluctant Labour or it might not turn out because it’s not happy,” said a campaign insider. “I would be confident if the election was today, but there’s a whole fortnight to go and there are lots of factors outwith our control.”

There’s now less than a fortnight of campaigning left and a lot of spring in the SNP’s step around the constituency.

Will the SNP campaign momentum provide one of the biggest by-election upsets of our times?

And bring about the downfall of Gordon Brown?

SNP closing in on Glasgow East

The Sunday Telegraph has issued the first poll of the Glasgow East campaign.

It has

Labour 47 % ( – 14 %)
SNP 33% ( + 16 %)
Liberal Democrats 9 % (-3 %)
Conservatives 7% (no change)

showing the SNP clawing Labour’s gap from the near 61% it polled in 2005!

That’s already a 14% swing from Labour to the SNP. Given that the SNP seem to be picking up votes from the Liberal Democrats and others, their vote has increased by 16%.

And that’s with only one week of the campaign gone! What more swings can we expect to see in the 11 days remaining?

Personally though I never read too much into polls. The SNP site relates the erroneous polling of Glasgow Govan in 1988, for instance.

This poll is pretty inconclusive either way. And its telephone based from only from 500 individuals, a very small sample. This is a constituency where landline telecom use is also way below the national average. That could have skewed the numbers somewhat.

It gives Labour a bit of heart knowing that if they can keep their vote and Gordon Brown avoids any calamities – and that’s not a sure thing! – then they could win the seat if they get a good turnout.

It gives the SNP a lift knowing that the gap is closing. With a push from their activists and making sure they get their vote out they could win the seat.

Personally I believe the Labour vote here is a soft vote and I expect further inroads by the SNP. Labour’s lack of activists in Glasgow East has meant that they will expect all Scottish MPs and MSPs to do the donkey work. Just how likely is their MPs getting their hands dirty doing the menial work? Slim to nil I’d guess, but it’d be good to see!!!

I believe there will be further tactical voting by the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives wishing to give Gordon Brown a bloody nose. Something that even the influential Conservative-minded blogger Iain Dale implies.

I also believe that Labour will have trouble getting their vote out.

You only have to look at the 2005 figures:- turnout of 48.24%, electorate 64 130.

The 18 775 that Labour achieved making it one of the safest Labour seats in the country actively discourages voters from the other parties voting. The Labour vote is encouraged by its past successes and comes out.

Even with all the media attention I wouldn’t expect the Labour vote to come anywhere near 18 000. Their vote just won’t come out in that number.

If the poll is correct there has already been a 14% swing to the SNP so I expect the figure to be much lower than 2005′s 18775 Labour vote.

I do think though that the SNP support will vote. The disenfranchised always turn out at the polls.

Even taking the Telegraph poll’s 33% for the SNP; if that applied to the Glasgow East electorate as a whole and they all voted SNP; the SNP would poll 21376.

That beats the Labour’s 18 000 at the 2005 election, provided that the SNP get their vote out and Labour don’t. Turnout may be the key to this byelection.

Everything is to play for and given a bit of momentum its in the SNP’s hands.

Glasgow East lies, Round 1!

Everyone in Scotland knows the newspapers are anti-SNP so its no surprise when the likes of the Daily Record and The Scotsman declare Margaret Curran’s Labour campaign launch in Glasgow East to be the best thing since sliced bread and one in the eye for the SNP!

‘Round 1 to Labour’ the Scotsman headline screamed as she launched her campaign.

I have commented before that there is no newspaper in Scotland that is pro-SNP. Its remarkable that the SNP, the most popular government Scotland has ever had, has no mainstream newspaper sympathetic to its policies! It just shows that the newspapers, editors and journalists are struggling to keep up with the Scottish public’s endearment to the SNP.

They are gradually getting the message though. One only has to look at their online comment pages to see that the public aren’t buying their propaganda any more. Their falling sales are a testament to that too – money talks, and eventually they must change their stance! There simply isn’t room in the market for all these Unionist newspapers.

I have already commented on the despondency of Labour’s Glasgow East campaign launch.

Now, as the actual launches of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SSP are posted on STV’s site, we can see what really happened, and see through the newspapers anti-SNP spin.

The video is posted here.

Straight from the start, Margaret Curran says she has lived in Glasgow’s East End for all her life.

That is a blatant lie.

She has a £350 000 house in a middle class area of Cathcart, in Glasgow’s South Side. She has stayed there for many years.

Perhaps the SNP should run tours from Glasgow East to her home just to point out the difference in living standards between the MSP and the constituents she wants to represent! And then ask them if they want to give her another job, expenses and a John Lewis list!

Maybe Margaret Curran should also go on the tour.

Its obvious that she has no idea where her home really is! Perhaps she should ask to be checked out by a doctor for signs of dementia.

The other Curran hoping to be elected is Frances Curran, also seen in the STV clip. She does not want to be confused as the Labour hopeful. I have already commented on the fact that she fears she could lose votes over their similar names.

But she has hinted at the Glasgow East constituents’ attitude towards the Labour MSP. “People have already had a go at me in the street because they think I’m Margaret Curran.” she said.

That just shows how much support Labour has lost when a candidate with a similar name to the local Labour MSP is harassed by constituents by mistake.

‘Round 1 to Labour’ indeed! What a disgraceful press!

Labour are already down and out, seconds after the bell has rung.

Wendy Alexander resignation

Well she finally did the decent thing and resigned.

It was seven months ago the Sunday Herald broke the story about her dodgy campaign pledges.

Seven months since campaign manager Tom McCabe admitted live on television that she had broke the law in obtaining an illegal donation from businessman Paul Green.

Six months since we learned that she also broke the law when not registering these ‘gifts’ in the MSPs register of interests in due course. Jim Dyer, the Standards Comissioner, refers the matter to the Procurator Fiscal in February.

The Electoral Comission also decide in February that although Alexander broke the law over donations they would not refer the matter to the Procurator Fiscal as it was “not in the public interest”!

The Procurator Fiscal also announces that it would not be pursuing further action to the Standards Comissioner’s complaint in March.

The Standards Comissioner hands his report to the Scottish Parliament’s Standards Committee in June. They agree with the conclusions of the report which indicate that Wendy Alexander broke the law. As a consequence they ban Wendy Alexander from the Scottish Parliament for one day.

Wendy resigns. “It is with deep regret that I write today to tender my resignation following the decisions of the Standards Committee this week.”

It was a resignation speech which lacked grace and one which tried to blame her situation on nationalists citing “SNP inspired complaints and investigations”.

That is laughable. She broke the law, and the Standards Commitee has punished her by giving her a one day ban of the Scottish Parliament. In my book, that’s getting off lightly.

The Sunday Herald today quotes : “Seven months after the Sunday Herald revealed her dodgy donation… Wendy Alexander finally resigns.” and largely takes credit for instigating her demise. Hardly an SNP investigation or complaint – or did the Sunday Herald’s unionist editorial policy suddenly shift whilst I was on holiday?

There were nationalist supporters who complained about her illegal conduct. Rightly as it turns out – so what’s wrong with that? Alexander’s comments could be likened to a Scooby Doo villain complaining that they only got caught because of pesky kids.

Finally, the claim that she had asked clerks for advice on registration, and they told her she need not register the donations…

This was a quick email, an afterthought by Wendy Alexander. She had already not declared most of her donations in the thirty days grace period. She had already broke this law.

The advice given to her by the clerks may have been inaccurate, but since the law was already broken I suspect they had little incentive to check its validity. Besides, the rule for all donations and gifts they most often quote is ‘If in doubt, declare it’.

The email afterthought shows that Wendy Alexander had doubts; otherwise why ask their advice in the first place?

As the legally responsible person she could have just registered the donations anyway.

Blaming the Standards Comissioner is just a cop-out. He needs to be independent and seek independent legal advice. Otherwise he would just be investigating procedures and cases where he has a clear conflict of interest.

I’ll leave the last words to the Sunday Herald: “Her defence against the verdicts of the comissioner and the Standards Committee – that was told by the parliament’s clerks that registration was not unnecessary – was as weak as it was irrelevant.

“Alexander had asked for advice from the clerks in November last year on the status of her donations, 60 days after some of the campaign cheques had been banked, despite the law clearing stating that MSPs have 30 days to declare gifts.

“Put simply, Alexander asked for advice on registration well after she had broken the rules, a fact that rendered any feedback from the Standards Commitee as worthless.”

Much like her time as leader.