Seems like, incredibly, the SNP are now the political commentators favourite to win the Glasgow East By-election!
The PHI 100 panel, a group which predicted the Labour loses in Crewe and Nantwich and the London Mayoral elections, are now tipping the SNP to win the east Glasgow seat.
If you think that they’re just a rogue group, let’s go to some other groups everyone knows hardly ever loses – the bookies!
These are Ladbrokes odds for the Glasgow East seat:-
SNP — 8/13
Labour — 6/5
Conservatives — 100/1
Liberal Democrats — 100/1
And Paddy Powers odds:-
SNP — 4/7
Labour — 5/4
Conservatives — 40/1
Lib Dem — 80/1
So the SNP are favourites in the 4th safest Labour seat in the UK!!!!!!
Only William Hill still have Labour as favourite:-
Labour — 8/11
SNP — evens
Conservatives — 50/1
Lib Dem — 50/1
Though their spokesman on Newsnight Scotland added “Betting will change over the next couple of weeks”.
I’ll wait for the candidates before placing a bet though. Might then be time for a board price bet with William Hill before they slash the odds to match the other bookies.
The Conservatives have announced their candidate though… Davena Rankin. She previously contested two other Glasgow seats (Glasgow Kelvin, Westminster seat, 2001; Glasgow Cathcart, Holyrood seat, 2007) … and lost around two per cent of the previous Conservative vote each time. It seems the bookies have got the Conservative odds right.
That’s really poor odds for the Liberal Democrats. Is that why Nicol Stephen has just resigned?
Maybe its the thought of losing a deposit in Glasgow East!
Nicol blamed stress for his decision. I hope for his sake that its not caused by any nepotistic expenses investigations like the departing Glasgow East Labour MP, David Marshall.
More probably its just another case of an opposition leader just not up to facing Alex Salmond. Like Labour, the Liberal Democrat choices of leader from the MSPs are a limited talent pool, even more so in fact because they’re so few in number. Probably will be a straight choice between Tavish Scott and his ego.
Will they hold off their leadership election till after the by-election like Labour?
If so, we could be in a remarkable position where 2 of the main parties are fighting a by-election without a Scottish MSP leader!
Wonder what the bookies price is on Annabel Goldie resigning any time soon?
And that’s three opposition leaders resigned in a row for Alex Salmond:- Jack McConnell, Wendy Alexander and Nicol Stephen.
Does he get to keep them?