Just one day after the Sunday Telegraph released their poll showing that the SNP vote has gained 16% and that the Labour vote is down by 14%, the Times reports that Labour’s own internal polling for the seat shows that there is now only 2500 votes between Labour and the SNP!
The Sunday Telegraph poll suggested that the SNP were fast closing the gap on Labour, then only needing a swing of 7% to win the seat.
Labour’s own polling now suggest that the SNP are breathing down their necks in Glasgow East, much closer than the Sunday Telegraph predicted.
If Labour’s polling is accurate then it means that there is now only 8.08% of vote between the Labour Party and the SNP – if the turnout figure matches that of the 2005 election.
That means that the SNP now require only a 4.04 % swing from Labour to the SNP to win the seat.
It shows that the SNP have grabbed all the momentum in the by-election, starting as they did needing a massive 22% swing a week ago when the campaign started.
Every day closer to polling day the swing from Labour to SNP grows larger, and the SNP draw nearer to a historic victory.
Will Gordon Brown’s tactic of having such a short by-election campaign save Labour?
Labour’s own campaign team want the by-election today before their vote haemorrhages away to the SNP completely. As each day passes more votes are lost.
The Times article quotes a Labour Campaigner speaking a few days ago:
“A significant amount of our vote is soft — it’s either reluctant Labour or it might not turn out because it’s not happy,” said a campaign insider. “I would be confident if the election was today, but there’s a whole fortnight to go and there are lots of factors outwith our control.”
There’s now less than a fortnight of campaigning left and a lot of spring in the SNP’s step around the constituency.
Will the SNP campaign momentum provide one of the biggest by-election upsets of our times?
And bring about the downfall of Gordon Brown?