Its a clear indication that Michigan will be Democrat blue in the coming election.
Michigan is one of several key swing states in the U.S. election.
Over at RealClearPolitics.com they have
Still to play for 115
And of those ‘toss up’ states the latest polling is:-
|State||Electoral votes||Obama %||McCain %||Prediction||2004 result||2000 result|
|Ohio||20||48.0||46.0||Obama +2.0||Bush +2.1||Bush +3.5|
|Florida||27||48.6||45.6||Obama +3.0||Bush +5.0||Bush +0.1|
|Nevada||5||47.8||47.3||Obama +0.5||Bush +2.6||Bush +3.5|
|New Hampshire||4||46.7||45.4||Obama +1.3||Kerry +1.3||Bush +1.3|
|Virginia||13||49.0||46.6||Obama +2.4||Bush +8.2||Bush +8.1|
|North Carolina||15||47.0||46.5||Obama +0.5||Bush +12.4||Bush +12.8|
|Missouri||11||46.8||48.5||McCain +1.7||Bush +7.2||Bush +3.3|
|Indiana||11||45.3||47.5||McCain +2.2||Bush +20.7||Bush +15.7|
|Colorado||9||49.0||44.6||Obama +4.4||Bush +4.7||Bush +8.4|
According to RealClearPolitics Wisconsin is already Obama’s to lose.
These results suggests that McCain should concentrate on the bigger college votes of Ohio, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina; where Obama’s poll lead is tightest.
Lets go with these RealClearPolitics predictions to see what might happen:-
If these bigger key swing states moved to McCain, along with Missouri and Indiana where McCain is marginally in front it would give McCain 260 electoral college votes.
Tied with Obama’s 260 [predicted by RealClearPolitics].
Given that Obama should pick up Colorado’s 9 votes, that could leave the fate of the election in the hands of Nevada (5 votes) and New Hampshire (4 votes).
That is a lot of ifs for McCain, and its doubtful if he’ll manage to take all of the bigger key swing states to make it interesting. We’ll see if McCain’s Michigan gamble pays off.
Right now the election is Obama’s to lose.