Benedict Brogan of the Daily Mail has said that Labour have admitted defeat in the Glenrothes by-election:
“By the way, Labour word is that Glenrothes is a lost cause.
“The SNP will take it by 1500, give or take 500.
“I don’t detect a Brown Central attempt to prepare a “shock” win. Instead they say that had they had a few days more it might have made a difference, and that without Gordon and Sarah Brown’s personal intervention the result would be far worse.
“So the good news is that defeat will be masked by the Obama euphoria.
“The bad news, as Team Dave will doubtless put it, is that the Novice won, and Gordon lost.”
The same bad admission by Labour is repeated by The Evening Standard:
‘Party insiders conceded that the contest was a “lost cause” despite evidence that the Scottish National Party’s lead in the seat had been narrowed in recent days.’
‘A No10 insider said that if the party had a couple more weeks to campaign, it could have pulled off a victory against the odds. “But we just don’t look like getting it.” A Labour source added that the seat was now a lost cause, though the SNP majority would be tight at possibly around 1,000 votes.’
Interesting that Labour think another couple of weeks would have helped their campaign. Of course no-one knows for sure.
The bookies though give a probability of a Labour win at around 25%, the SNP around 75%.
And interestingly, the Labour probability was falling and the SNP probability was rising over the last week.
It hardly backs up Labour’s perception of ‘just another couple of weeks’ to campaign, does it?
The media are already bracing themselves for another change of position on Gordon Brown.
As seen in The First Post:
‘Senior Labour party figures are braced for an election defeat to a strong Scottish National Party in today’s byelection in the former safe seat of Glenrothes. A heavy defeat could trigger renewed speculation over Gordon Brown’s ability to lead Labour to an election victory.’