October 12, 2008
Newspapers have been quoting the survey by the World Economic Forum in which business leaders have been rating the solvency of world banks.
The rankings however were compiled just before the recent £50 billion bail-out by the UK, the nationalisation of the Icelandic banks and the larger US bail-out.
The website has the co-authors interviewed from the 3rd to the 7th of October. The report itself was published on the 8th October.
RANKINGS
1. Canada
2. Sweden
3. Luxembourg
4. Australia
5. Denmark
6. Netherlands
7. Belgium
8. New Zealand
9. Ireland
10. Malta
11. Hong Kong
12. Finland
13. Singapore
14. Norway
15. South Africa
16. Switzerland
17. Namibia
18. Chile
19. France
20. Spain
21. Barbados
22. Bahrain
23. Slovak Republic
24. Brazil
25. Estonia
26. Austria
27. Panama
28. Mauritius
29. Kuwait
30. Qatar
31. United Arab Emirates
32. Trinidad and Tobago
33. Senegal
34. Israel
35. Portugal
36. Iceland
37. Cyprus
38. Botswana
39. Germany
40. United States
41. Lithuania
42. Peru
43. El Salvador
44. United Kingdom
45. Greece
46. Benin
47. Costa Rica
48. Malawi
49. Guyana
50. Malaysia
51. India
52. Puerto Rico
53. The Gambia
54. Montenegro
55. Mexico
56. Croatia
57. Czech Republic
58. Jordan
59. Ghana
60. Suriname
61. Brunei Darussalam
62. Latvia
63. Saudi Arabia
64. Kenya
65. Jamaica
66. Honduras
67. Zambia
68. Burkina Faso
69. Slovenia
70. Sri Lanka
71. Pakistan
72. Philippines
73. Republic of Korea
74. Romania
75. Thailand
76. Madagascar
77. Colombia
78. Cote d’Ivoire
79. Italy
80. Bulgaria
81. Hungary
82. Cameroon
83. Georgia
84. Oman
85. Tunisia
86. Paraguay
87. Nigeria
88. Armenia
89. Morocco
90. Dominican Republic
91. Bolivia
92. Malia
93. Japan
94. Tanzania
95. Moldova
96. Bosnia and Herzegovina
97. Poland
98. Nicaragua
99. Venezuela
100. Uruguay
101. Guatemala
102. FYR Macedonia
103. Syria
104. Albania
105. Nepal
106. Mozambique
107. Russian Federation
108. China
109. Uganda
110. Serbia
111. Egypt
112. Ukraine
113. Vietnam
114. Turkey
115. Bangladesh
116. Azerbaijan
117. Taiwan, China
118. Ecuador
119. Mauritania
120. Mongolia
121. Indonesia
122. Zimbabwe
123. Tajikistan
124. Kazakhstan
125. Cambodia
126. Burundi
127. Chad
128. Ethiopia
129. Argentina
130. East Timor
131. Kyrgyz Republic
132. Lesotho
133. Libya
134. Algeria
Yes. That’s right.
The UK lies behind Peru and El Salvador.
Now given this report was a survey of the world’s economists whose advice our banks were no doubt taking; should we believe it?
Are the UK’s banks really behind Peru, El Salvador and Senegal?
Or is it an accurate representation that is slightly out of date, compiled as it was slightly before the bail-outs?
That must depend on whether you believe the bail-outs will work.
If reports are to be believed the Royal Bank of Scotland is next in line to be nationalised tomorrow. If that happens then there will be further pressure on the remaining UK bank’s to be nationalised too. The banking sector could be picked off one by one by the market and the taxpayer forced to pick up the tab.
On that Iain Dale post there have already been comments about the English taxpayer bailing out the Scottish bank.
It must be a pity, to all those who carp, that Scotland is not already independent.
An independent Scotland with a similar oil fund like our neighbour Norway could be similarly insulated from these turbulent times.
It would also have the economic levers to maintain its economy best, not just for the South-East of England as remains the case today. Remember Eddie George, the former Governor of the Bank of England: Unemployment in the north is a price worth paying for affluence in the South!
Although the credit crunch is global, take a look back at those rankings.
Sweden, Luxembourg, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands. All small countries lying in the top 10.
Even Ireland, who have recently guaranteed all deposits in their banks, are sitting 9th.
The argument that Scotland is too small to be financially unstable is farcical! I don’t hear anyone saying that Denmark is too small and should be run from Berlin. (Not since the days of Adolf Hitler and the Second World War anyway!)
As countries large and small struggle with the credit credit crunch from the U.S. and Russia down to Iceland with its 300 000 population, this population argument of independence must be seen to be invalid. Iceland, with a population slightly smaller than North Lanarkshire, isn’t exactly Miramont Gardens in Pimlico!
What matters now is that we take the right decisions to get out this mess.
Those decisions may be different for each country. They may even be different for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
That’s why its important key economic levers are devolved away from Westminster.
Otherwise the Eddie George syndrome will hamper ‘the North’ recovering for years.
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Leave a Comment » | Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Banking, Barbados, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Business and industry, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, England, Estonia, Ethiopia, Films, Finland, France, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lesotho, Libya, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Media, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Northern Ireland, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Politics, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Republic of Ireland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Scotland, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Surinam, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, Wales, Zambia, Zimbabwe | Tagged: Bank of England, credit crunch, Eddie George, Passport to Pimlico, Royal Bank of Scotland, World Economic Forum | Permalink
Posted by clinoch
August 10, 2008
In my last post I suggested that it wouldn’t be in Russia’s best interests in the region if South Ossetia was independent.
Paradoxically though they are right behind the South Ossetians in their bid for independence.
Its not really a genuine wish for their self determination. A genuine South Ossetian state that wasn’t pro-Moscow like Georgia would be another nightmare for Russia, opening up tensions in its own ethnic Caucaus regions.
Its nothing more than the old divide and conquer strategy.
That’s why the Abkhazia and Ajaria independence movements are also sponspored by Russia. Purely to destabilise Georgia, nothing less.
If it was only about South Ossetia then why are Russian planes bombing Georgian cities? Military tactics or an excuse to bring Georgia to its knees?
Russia does not like Georgia’s pro-Western stance. Their attempt to join NATO.
Georgia is seen as the epitome of an former Soviet republic embracing Western philosophy.
The New York Times has this appraisal:
“It’s scarcely clear yet how things will stand between the two when the smoke clears. But it’s safe to say that while Russia has a massive advantage in firepower, Georgia, an open, free-market, more-or-less-democratic nation that sees itself as a distant outpost of Europe, enjoys a decisive rhetorical and political edge.
In recent conversations there, President Saakashvili compared Georgia to Czechoslovakia in 1938, trusting the West to save it from a ravenous neighbor.
“If Georgia fails,” he said to me darkly two months ago, “it will send a message to everyone that this path doesn’t work.”
During a 10-day visit to Georgia in June, I heard the 1938 analogy again and again, as well as another to 1921, when Bolshevik troops crushed Georgia’s thrilling, and brief, first experiment with liberal rule.”
“You should understand,” Mr. Saakashvili said, mocking the Europeans who urge forbearance on him, “that the crocodile is hungry. Well, from the point of view of someone who wants to keep his own leg, that’s hard to accept.”
The Georgian President’s analogy of Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Hitler invaded – on the pretext of liberating German citizens – was also reinforced by the Swedish Foreign Minister:
“Attempts to apply such a doctrine have plunged Europe into war in the past… And we have reason to remember how Hitler used this very doctrine little more than half a century ago to undermine and attack substantial parts of central Europe,” Bildt said.
“We did not accept military intervention by Milosevic’s Serbia in other Yugoslav states on the grounds of protecting Serbian passport holders,” he added.
Poland and the Baltic States are also on the side of Georgia in the conflict:
“The EU and NATO must take the initiative and stand up against the spread of imperialist and revisionist policy in the east of Europe,” leaders of the four countries said in a joint statement.
“The Russian Federation has overstepped a red-line in keeping the peace and stability in the conflict zone and in protecting Russian citizens outside its own borders,” the statement added.
Again from the New York Times:
“Marshall Goldman, a leading Russia scholar, argues in a recent book that Mr. Putin has established a ‘petrostate,’ in which oil and gas are strategically deployed as punishments, rewards and threats.
The author details the lengths to which Mr. Putin has gone to retain control over the delivery of natural gas from Central Asia to the West.
A proposed alternative pipeline would skirt Russia and run through Georgia, as an oil pipeline now does.
‘If Georgia collapses in turmoil,’ Mr. Goldman notes, ‘investors will not put up the money for a bypass pipeline.’ And so, he concludes, Mr. Putin has done his best to destabilize the Saakashvili regime.”
Already we are seeing problems with the oil supply.
Azerbaijan has now cut off their oil exports through Georgia.
And it is now reported that Russian jets have bombed the main oil pipeline that runs through Georgia to Turkey .
Here’s an old map showing the oil routes in the area. There are two oil pipleines shown in Georgia. The largest oil pipeline (on the map as planned) is now in place and runs straight through to Turkey. Its run by BP and is the one that is reportedly bombed.
And wouldn’t Russia like the Georgian oil pipelines in their control!
You have got to feel sympathy for the South Ossetians, their capital Tskhinvali lying in ruins.
I’m reminded of the attributed words of Calgacus, the Pictish warrior, who said of the Romans attempting to invade what is now Scotland:
“They make a desert and call it peace.”
1 Comment | Abkhazia, Ajaria, Azerbaijan, Communism, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Politics, Russia, Scotland, Serbia, Slovakia, South Ossetia, Sweden, Turkey | Tagged: Adolf Hitler, Calgacus, Caucaus, Mikheil Saakashvili, NATO, Oil, Pict, Romans, Slobodan Milošević, Tskhinvali | Permalink
Posted by clinoch
June 14, 2008
These are the latest World Broadband ratings by ITIF:-
I’m going to concentrate this blog on the first column. That of broadband penetration; what percent of the countries population has access to broadband internet at home.
A recent Ofcom study found the UK’s figures slightly higher than ITIF, sitting at 57%. I hope this is indeed the case. I’ll use the Ofcom figures as accurate for the UK and the ITIF figures as accurate globally. Where the Ofcom figures match in the case of Belgium and the US, I’ll put the UK behind both countries as a low ranking 57%.
Sorting the ITIF list purely on Broadband takeup we get:-
1. South Korea 93
2. Iceland 83
3. Netherlands 77
4. Denmark 76
5. Switzerland 74
6. Norway 68
7. Canada 65
8. Finland 61
9. Australia 59
10. Belgium 57
11. United States 57
12. United Kingdom 57
13. Luxembourg 56
14. Japan 55
15. Sweden 54
16. France 54
17. Spain 49
18. Germany 47
19. Republic of Ireland 46
20. Austria 45
21. Portugal 44
22. New Zealand 42
23. Italy 41
24. Czech Republic 30
25. Hungary 29
26. Poland 23
27. Turkey 23
28. Slovakia 22
29. Mexico 20
30. Greece 18
I think that broadband takeup is the more relevant figure posted by ITIF. Speed and price are market factors, but the takeup figure roughly shows the percentage of people that use the internet and roughly shows your market audience. (Obviously countries with extremely large populations with lower takeup are not on the list e.g. China, India, Russia.)
Now regular readers might suspect that I’ll be analysing the UK figures in detail, and breaking them down to England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They would be right!
As this blog already is on the long side though, I’ll refrain from the compare and contrast – till later.
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Leave a Comment » | Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Media, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United States, Wales | Tagged: Broadband, Internet, ITIF, Ofcom | Permalink
Posted by clinoch